Drought in SW Missouri worsens with no rain in forecast
Cattle producers have begun feeding hay ahead of schedule.

Zack Leasor
State Climatologist
University of Missouri Extension
Phone: 573-882-5908
Email: leasorz@missouri.edu

Tim Schnakenberg
Field Specialist in Agronomy
University of Missouri Extension
Phone: 417-357-6812
Email: SchnakenbergC@missouri.edu

Thursday, October 24, 2024

COLUMBIA, Mo. - Drought continues to plague southwestern and west-central Missouri as pastures dry and cattle producers start to feed hay well ahead of schedule.

"The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor depicts increasing severity and coverage of drought conditions across Missouri," says Zachary Leasor, University of Missouri Extension climatologist.

As of Oct. 24, 94% of the state is classified as at least abnormally dry, with 65% in moderate drought or worse. Severe (D2) drought classifications cover 25% of the state, and nine counties in southwestern Missouri are experiencing extreme (D3) drought.

Parts of southwestern Missouri have not had any rain since mid-August, says MU Extension agronomist Tim Schnakenberg. Neighboring northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas face similar situations. He says producers tell him that they have not seen conditions as bad since the drought of 2012.

Some livestock producers have told Schnakenberg that they began feeding hay to cattle up to two months ago. Great growing conditions early this summer helped to replenish hay supplies, but now some of those supplies have been depleted even before winter feeding begins. Additionally, no stockpiles exist due to extended dry conditions.

Water supplies for livestock are also dwindling. Ponds are drying up, and there is no rain in the forecast. Producers are also concerned about prussic acid issues with sorghum-Sudan grass and Johnson grass.

Schnakenberg says some producers are starting to thin herds in anticipation of not having enough hay to last through the winter. They are starting to rely on supplemental feed. Feed remains the biggest cost of maintaining a cow.

"Normal forage establishment has been strongly curtailed," says Schnakenberg. "Plans for cover crops and winter grazing have been dashed." At a time when grass stands need to be rejuvenated, there is no moisture for seeds to germinate. If rain comes by early November, there may still be time to put in winter annuals such as wheat, rye or triticale, but this will primarily help with early-season grazing and hay next spring, not this winter.

Conditions in southwestern Missouri are affecting the agricultural economy in other ways, says Schnakenberg. Lime and fertilizer dealers report that application requests and drill rentals are down.

The current drought began in late summer for most of the state, with conditions exacerbated by a recent dry streak, says Leasor. Statewide precipitation was below average during September, marking the state's eighth consecutive September with below-average rainfall.

Much of state has now gone more than three weeks without measurable rainfall. Joplin has received only 1.15 inches of rainfall over the past 60 days, 6.80 inches below the seasonal average. More than halfway through the month, Missouri is on pace for its driest October on record, says Leasor.

Chances for significant rainfall remain low as the state heads into a climatologically drier time of year. The latest November outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center anticipates a higher likelihood for drier conditions across southeastern Missouri, with equal chances for above- or below-average precipitation across the rest of the state. Forecasters expect La Niña conditions to emerge over the winter, which could lead to a colder winter for Missouri and the upper Midwest, with a more favorable chance for seasonally average precipitation.

Many farm ponds are low, as are streams and creeks, says Leasor. Even the Mississippi River at St. Louis is being affected by drought conditions. As of Oct. 17, the current stage (-2.20 feet) of the Mississippi River continues to fall. The low record at the St. Louis gauge is -6.2 feet, recorded in 1940.

In addition, the combination of drier weather, low relative humidity, winds and low soil moisture have contributed to several days of enhanced fire risk in Missouri.

Source: Zack Leasor, 573-882-5908; Tim Schnakenberg, 417-357-6812